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192.168.6.56/handle/123456789/56311Full metadata record
| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | HENK A. DE GANS | - |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2019-03-21T08:13:34Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2019-03-21T08:13:34Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 1999 | - |
| dc.identifier.isbn | 978-94-011-4766-8 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://10.6.20.12:80/handle/123456789/56311 | - |
| dc.description | Population forecasting 1895-1945: The transition to modernity was researched and written from 1990 onwards. Little did I realise in the early 1990s that my interest in the innovative performances of population forecasters of the interwar period would bring me to the roots of population forecasting in early statistics and demography. Even less did I expect to find the 'prehistoric' endeavours in modern population forecasting of Edwin Cannan (1895) in England, Pontus Fahlbeck (1905) in Sweden and Harald Westergaard (1907) in Denmark, all evocative imaginations of the demographic transition in Europe, which merit a place in the intellectual history of demographic transition theory. The modernisation of population forecasting resulted from the emergence and propagation of cohort component forecasting. Dutch forecasters of the interwar period were pioneers in the modernisation of population forecasting methodology. Why their performances remained unnoticed in international histories is revealed in this book. One cause was the difficulty the Dutch representatives in the international field of statistics had in accepting probability calculus and the achievements of the mathematical school of statistics in population forecasting. One of the conclusions of my PhD thesis Demographic Forecasting in the Netherlands 1895-1945: The Analysis and Implications of a Paradigm Shift, published in 1997, was therefore that the difficulty these men had in accepting probability and uncertainty in calculating the future course of population demonstrated a Kuhnian paradigm shift in the study of future population. | - |
| dc.language | en | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Springer | en_US |
| dc.subject | Forecasting | en_US |
| dc.title | Population Forecasting 1895-1945 | en_US |
| dc.type | Book | en_US |
| Appears in Collections: | Population Studies | |
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