Title:	An Empirical Analysis of Population and Technological Progress
Authors:	Hisakazu Kato
Keywords:	Technological Progress
Issue Date:	2016
Publisher:	Springer
Description:	In Japan, we are facing a declining population and an aging society, an unprecedented experience for modern humans. The phenomenon of population decline and aging is found not only in our country but also in other developed nations. Under these circumstances, we face the challenge regarding whether we can maintain sustained economic growth. Historical experience indicates that during the period of rapid economic growth of the 1950s and 1960s, the large younger labor force and their savings spurred the Japanese economy, and the postwar economic miracle was realized consequent of these factors. This was referred to as a “demographic bonus,” and the population factors positively contributed to economic growth. However, we are apprehensive of the sustainability of future economic growth by reason of the opposite situation—population decrease and societal aging is a “demographic onus.” For sustainability of economic growth, the pivotal factor is technological progress. Considering the past experience of Japanese economic growth, the most valid factor is technological progress, which is referred to as total factor productivity (TFP) in economic terms. As noted above, the declining population is the most severe problem in Japan, and there is a view that the declining population negatively affects TFP. There have been numerous prolonged debates regarding the relationship between population and technological progress. From the old Malthusian model to the modern endogenous economic growth models, various theories have been developed in the context of growth theory and the pioneers of economic development research, such as the contribution of Kuznets and Simon to the field. We briefly summarize these discussions and analyze the relationship between population and technological progress empirically in recent years in this study. This study is organized as follows: Chapter 1 reviews the literature regarding the relationship between population and technological progress and proposes the problem that an empirical study should examine. Chapter 2 discusses the importance of technological progress and economic growth, utilizing the growth accounting method and a simple empirical analysis. In Chap. 3, the study will verify the relationship between the two phenomena through an empirical analysis using Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data from 1985 to 2012. Utilizing the empirical analysis, the study will confirm that the population scale and the growth rate positively affect multifactor productivity (MFP).
URI:	http://10.6.20.12:80/handle/123456789/53798
ISBN:	978-4-431-54959-8
Appears in Collections:	Population Studies

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