Title:	Household and Living Arrangement Projections
Authors:	Yi Zeng Kenneth C. Land Danan Gu Zhenglian Wang KENNETH C. LAND
Keywords:	Household
Issue Date:	2014
Publisher:	Springer
Description:	This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as the ProFamy extended cohort-component method for the projection of household structures and living arrangements with empirical applications to the United States, the largest developed country, and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy method uses demographic rates as inputs to project detailed distributions of house- hold types and sizes, living arrangements of all household members, and population by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or small area levels. It can also project elderly care needs and costs, pension deficits, and household consumption. The book consists of four parts. The first part presents the methodology, data, estimation issues, and empirical assessments. The next two parts present applications in the United States (Part II) and China (Part III), concerning demographic, social, economic, and business research; policy analysis, including forecasting future trends of household type/size, elderly living arrangements, disability, and home-based care costs; and household consumptions, including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user’s guide for the ProFamy software to project households, living arrangements, and home-based consumptions. The very initial idea of the research presented in this book began when I was a Ph.D. student at Brussels Free University and attended the International Union for Scientific Studies of Population (IUSSP) 1983 family demography seminar. At that seminar, I was especially interested in a paper presented by Professor John Bongaarts on “The projection of family composition over the life course with the family status life table.” With strong support from my supervisors, Professors Frans Willekens and Ron Lesthaeghe, and stimulated by Professor John Bongaarts’ initial nuclear family status life table model, I conducted my Ph.D. thesis research at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) in 1984–1986 to develop a general family status life table model including both nuclear and three- generation families, with an empirical application to China. During my study at NIDI, I learned a great deal of multistate demography from Professor Frans Willeken, who not only supervised my Ph.D study but also helped my long-term professional career development including work on this book. As a Frank Notesteinv. Post-doctoral Fellow in 1986–1987, I further studied this demographic topic at the Office of Population Research at Princeton University, under the supervision of Professors Ansley Coale and Jane Menken. My research at Brussels Free Univer- sity, NIDI, and Princeton University enabled me to win the Population Association of America 1987 Dorothy Thomas Award, and my paper on “Changes in Family Structure in China: A Simulation Study” was published in Population and Devel- opment Review (Zeng 1986). I greatly appreciate what I learned from Professors Willekens, Lesthaeghe, Coale, Menken, and Bongaarts during my Ph.D. and post- doctoral studies, knowledge which led to the new research reported in this book.
URI:	http://10.6.20.12:80/handle/123456789/52697
ISBN:	978-90-481-8906-9
Appears in Collections:	Population Studies

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