Title:	Population Dynamics and Projection Methods
Authors:	John Stillwell Martin Clarke
Keywords:	Projection Methods
Issue Date:	2011
Publisher:	Springer
Description:	This chapter is written as a reflection on population changes over the past and future half centuries. Demographic analysis focuses on the processes which add members to populations and which subtract members. The key population processes are therefore fertility which adds babies, mortality which subtracts mainly older adults and migration which adds and subtracts people mainly in the young adult ages. Migration operates on local, national and international scales. Only migration between spatial units alters their population. The chapter looks at both recent trends and the future. Societies that pay attention to their potential futures are normally more successful than societies that pay no attention. As individuals, we are interested in what might happen over our remaining lifetimes, over the remaining lifetimes of our children and grandchildren. Underpinning the work that I review are a set of methods for analysis of population change, which include the cohort-component model used to carry out population projections, the life table used to compute life expectancies and statistical analyses of various kinds. Multi-state versions of these analyses are now widely used for example to estimate healthy life expectancies (Khoman, Mitchell, & Weale, 2008), to assess the impact of international migration on European populations (Bijak, Kupiszewska, Kupiszewska, Saczuk, & Kicinger, 2007; Bijak, Kupiszewska, & Kupiszewski, 2008) or to evaluate the impact of alternative policylinked scenarios on European region populations (Rees et al., 2010a). There is a strong push to develop methods to estimate the uncertainties around traditional point values using various statistical methods (Keilman, 2001; Clark, 2003; Wilson & Bell, 2004; Booth, 2004; Alders, Keilman, & Cruijsen, 2007; Keilman, 2007; Lutz, Sanderson, & Scherbov, 2008a). Development of official UK stochastic population projections has started (Shaw, 2008; Rowan & Wright, 2010) but needs further analysis before the status of national statistics is achieved.
URI:	http://10.6.20.12:80/handle/123456789/50929
ISBN:	978-90-481-8930-4
Appears in Collections:	Population Studies

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